Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.
Identifieur interne : 000364 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000363; suivant : 000365Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.
Auteurs : Yanyu Xiao [Canada] ; Zeenat Patel ; Adam Fiddler ; Lilian Yuan ; Marie-Elaine Delvin ; David N. FismanSource :
- Influenza and other respiratory viruses [ 1750-2659 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Contrôle des maladies contagieuses (), Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (traitement médicamenteux), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles théoriques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Ontario (épidémiologie), Oséltamivir (usage thérapeutique), Résultat thérapeutique, Simulation numérique, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (isolement et purification), Sujet âgé.
- MESH :
- isolement et purification : Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- traitement médicamenteux : Grippe humaine.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Oséltamivir.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Ontario.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Contrôle des maladies contagieuses, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles théoriques, Mâle, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Résultat thérapeutique, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (isolation & purification), Influenza, Human (drug therapy), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (virology), Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Ontario (epidemiology), Oseltamivir (therapeutic use), Treatment Outcome, Young Adult.
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents, Oseltamivir.
- geographic , epidemiology : Ontario.
- drug therapy : Influenza, Human.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- isolation & purification : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Treatment Outcome, Young Adult.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was mild by historical standards, but was more severe in isolated Canadian Indigenous communities. Oseltamivir was used aggressively for outbreak control in an isolated northern Ontario First Nations community. We used mathematical modeling to quantify the impact of antiviral therapy on the course of this outbreak.
METHODS
We used both a Richards growth model and a compartmental model to evaluate the characteristics of the outbreak based on both respiratory visits and influenza-like illness counts. Estimates of best-fit model parameters, including basic reproductive number (R0 ) and antiviral efficacy, and simulations, were used to estimate the impact of antiviral drugs compared to social distancing interventions alone.
RESULTS
Using both approaches, we found that a rapidly growing outbreak slowed markedly with aggressive antiviral therapy. Richards model turning points occurred within 24 hours of antiviral implementation. Compartmental models estimated antiviral efficacy at 70-95%. Plausible estimates of R from both modeling approaches ranged from 4·0 to 15·8, higher than published estimates for southern Canada; utilization of aggressive antiviral therapy in this community prevented 962-1757 cases of symptomatic influenza and as many as 114 medical evacuations in this community.
CONCLUSION
Although not advocated in other settings in Canada, aggressive antiviral therapy markedly reduced the impact of a pandemic-related influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in an isolated Canadian First Nations community in northern Ontario, Canada. The differential risk experienced by such communities makes tailored interventions that consider risk and lack of access to medical services, appropriate.
DOI: 10.1111/irv.12141
PubMed: 23879801
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
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Oseltamivir was used aggressively for outbreak control in an isolated northern Ontario First Nations community. We used mathematical modeling to quantify the impact of antiviral therapy on the course of this outbreak.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We used both a Richards growth model and a compartmental model to evaluate the characteristics of the outbreak based on both respiratory visits and influenza-like illness counts. Estimates of best-fit model parameters, including basic reproductive number (R0 ) and antiviral efficacy, and simulations, were used to estimate the impact of antiviral drugs compared to social distancing interventions alone.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Using both approaches, we found that a rapidly growing outbreak slowed markedly with aggressive antiviral therapy. Richards model turning points occurred within 24 hours of antiviral implementation. Compartmental models estimated antiviral efficacy at 70-95%. Plausible estimates of R from both modeling approaches ranged from 4·0 to 15·8, higher than published estimates for southern Canada; utilization of aggressive antiviral therapy in this community prevented 962-1757 cases of symptomatic influenza and as many as 114 medical evacuations in this community.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>Although not advocated in other settings in Canada, aggressive antiviral therapy markedly reduced the impact of a pandemic-related influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in an isolated Canadian First Nations community in northern Ontario, Canada. The differential risk experienced by such communities makes tailored interventions that consider risk and lack of access to medical services, appropriate.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">23879801</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2014</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>21</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1750-2659</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>7</Volume><Issue>6</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Nov</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Influenza and other respiratory viruses</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1409-15</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/irv.12141</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was mild by historical standards, but was more severe in isolated Canadian Indigenous communities. Oseltamivir was used aggressively for outbreak control in an isolated northern Ontario First Nations community. We used mathematical modeling to quantify the impact of antiviral therapy on the course of this outbreak.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We used both a Richards growth model and a compartmental model to evaluate the characteristics of the outbreak based on both respiratory visits and influenza-like illness counts. Estimates of best-fit model parameters, including basic reproductive number (R0 ) and antiviral efficacy, and simulations, were used to estimate the impact of antiviral drugs compared to social distancing interventions alone.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Using both approaches, we found that a rapidly growing outbreak slowed markedly with aggressive antiviral therapy. Richards model turning points occurred within 24 hours of antiviral implementation. Compartmental models estimated antiviral efficacy at 70-95%. Plausible estimates of R from both modeling approaches ranged from 4·0 to 15·8, higher than published estimates for southern Canada; utilization of aggressive antiviral therapy in this community prevented 962-1757 cases of symptomatic influenza and as many as 114 medical evacuations in this community.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Although not advocated in other settings in Canada, aggressive antiviral therapy markedly reduced the impact of a pandemic-related influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in an isolated Canadian First Nations community in northern Ontario, Canada. The differential risk experienced by such communities makes tailored interventions that consider risk and lack of access to medical services, appropriate.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xiao</LastName><ForeName>Yanyu</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Patel</LastName><ForeName>Zeenat</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fiddler</LastName><ForeName>Adam</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yuan</LastName><ForeName>Lilian</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Delvin</LastName><ForeName>Marie-Elaine</ForeName><Initials>ME</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fisman</LastName><ForeName>David N</ForeName><Initials>DN</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2013</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>23</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101304007</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1750-2640</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><ChemicalList><Chemical><RegistryNumber>0</RegistryNumber><NameOfSubstance UI="D000998">Antiviral Agents</NameOfSubstance></Chemical><Chemical><RegistryNumber>20O93L6F9H</RegistryNumber><NameOfSubstance UI="D053139">Oseltamivir</NameOfSubstance></Chemical></ChemicalList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000998" MajorTopicYN="N">Antiviral Agents</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000627" MajorTopicYN="Y">therapeutic use</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003140" MajorTopicYN="N">Communicable Disease Control</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="N">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000302" MajorTopicYN="Y">isolation & purification</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000188" MajorTopicYN="Y">drug therapy</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009864" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Ontario</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053139" MajorTopicYN="N">Oseltamivir</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000627" MajorTopicYN="Y">therapeutic use</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016896" MajorTopicYN="N">Treatment Outcome</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Indigenous health</Keyword><Keyword 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Fisman</name><name sortKey="Patel, Zeenat" sort="Patel, Zeenat" uniqKey="Patel Z" first="Zeenat" last="Patel">Zeenat Patel</name><name sortKey="Yuan, Lilian" sort="Yuan, Lilian" uniqKey="Yuan L" first="Lilian" last="Yuan">Lilian Yuan</name></noCountry><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Xiao, Yanyu" sort="Xiao, Yanyu" uniqKey="Xiao Y" first="Yanyu" last="Xiao">Yanyu Xiao</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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